Market Snapshot
Podcasts

SEM Podcasts:  

Sunshine Friday, 5/18/12

Best of the Blog, 5/12/12 -- The broken banking system

Best of the Blog, 5/5/12 -- Will more spending help?

Best of the Blog, 4/28/12 -- Why are we listening to these idiots?

Best of the Blog, 4/21/12 -- Is Spain the next Greece?

Best of the Blog, 4/14/12 -- Is Bernanke a Hero or Villain?

Best of the Blog, 4/7/12 -- Signs of Addiction

Best of the Blog, 3/31/12 -- 31 Years Later


SEM Presentations:

What can we expect the rest of 2012? - April 19, 2012

What will 2012 look like? - January 9, 2012

Are we headed towards recession? - October 7, 2011

What is happening with the economy? - September 26, 2011


SEM on the Radio:  

Peter McClellan Show, 3/23/12 -- Is it really disappointing?

Peter McClellan Show, 3/16/12 -- Is it time to buy Apple?

Peter McClellan Show, 3/2/12 -- Dow 13,000 -- Is it Time to Party?

Peter McClellan Show, 2/23/12 -- Why has the market rally stalled?

Peter McClellan Show, 2/17/12 -- Are we learning anything from Greece?

Peter McClellan Show, 2/10/12 -- Angry?  So are we.

Peter McClellan Show, 2/3/12 -- Is employment recovering?

Young Professionals Show, 2/1/12 -- Generational Differences

Peter McClellan Show, 1/27/12 -- Dissecting GDP & the Fed

Peter McClellan Show, 1/19/12 --Why aren't the big institutions buying?

Peter McClellan Show, 1/13/12 -- Should we be concerned with government debt?

Peter McClellan Show, 1/6/12 -- 2012 Outlook

Peter McClellan Show, 12/23/11 -- How SEM manages money (with SEM founder Rick Gage)

Peter McClellan Show, 12/16/11 -- What can we learn from 2011?

Peter McClellan Show, 12/9/11 -- Will the Grinch Steal Christmas?

Peter McClellan Show, 12//2/11 -- The Global Ponzi Scheme

Peter McClellan Show, 11/18/11 -- The failure of the Super Committee

Peter McClellan Show, 11/11/11 -- What is the bond market saying about stocks?

Peter McClellan Show, 11/4/11 -- Certain Uncertainty

Peter McClellan Show, 10/28/11 -- Did the market go too far too fast?

Peter McClellan Show, 10/21/11 -- What does the violence around the world mean for the market?

Peter McClellan Show, 10/14/11 -- Should we be worried about the Occupy Wall Street movement?

You & Your Money, 10/8/11 -- What happened during the 3rd quarter?

Peter McClellan Show, 10/7/11 -- Are you enjoying tracking your investments?

Peter McClellan Show, 9/30/11 -- 3rd Quarter Recap / 4th Quarter Preview

Peter McClellan Show, 9/26/11 - Is this sell-off a buying opportunity?

Peter McClellan Show, 9/19/11 - Are European problems solved?

Peter McClellan Show, 9/9/11 - Is the Euro about to collapse?

Peter McClellan Show, 9/8/11 - Are the problems in Europe overblown?

Peter McClellan Show, 9/7/11 - Can we avoid a recession?

Peter McClellan Show, 9/2/11 - Reality Check for the Market

Peter McClellan Show, 8/29/11 - Is the Market Giving Us False Hope?

Peter McClellan Show, 8/26/11 - Will the Fed Save the Stock Market?

Peter McClellan Show, 8/19/11 - Is it time to panic?

Peter McClellan Show, 8/12/11 - Why is the market so volatile?

Peter McClellan Show, 8/8/11 - What does the debt downgrade mean?

Peter McClellan Show, 8/5/11 - Should we put on our hardhats?

Peter McClellan Show, 7/21/11 - The Debt Ceiling Circus 

Peter McClellan Show, 6/16/11 - What if Voters Ran the Country?

Peter McClellan Show, 6/7/11 - The Sales Process

Peter McClellan Show, 5/25/11 - Does Greece Matter?

Peter McClellan Show, 5/6/11 - The Delusion of Stimulus

Peter McClellan Show, 3/10/11 - The Power of STUPID People

 

Peter McClellan Show, 2/25/11 - Can the Fed Save the Market?

Peter McClellan Show, 1/24/11 - Saying NO to Your Kids

Peter McClellan Show, 1/17/11 - Pensions: Can You Count On Them?

Peter McClellan Show, 1/5/11 - Taking Control of Your Retirement

Peter McClellan Show, 12/21/10 - 2010 Review & a Look Ahead

Peter McClellan Show, 11/24/10 - Tracking the Economic Recovery

Peter McClellan Show, 10/7/10 - Is the Coast Clear or Is There Another Crisis on the Way?

Peter McClellan Show, 9/28/10 - Disappointments in Retirement

Peter McClellan Show, 9/27/10 - Taxes & Politics

Peter McClellan Show, 9/15/10 - Taxes, Stimulus, & the Deficit

Peter McClellan Show, 9/9/10 - Inflation or Deflation?  How to Structure my portfolio.

Peter McClellan Show, 8/17/10 - Investor Confidence in Market

Peter McClellan Show, 7/29/10 - Understanding Social Cycles

Peter McClellan Show, 7/9/10 - Sunshine's Weather Forecast

Peter McClellan Show, 6/11/10 - A Critical Summer

Peter McClellan Show, 5/10/10 - The "Flash Crash"

Peter McClellan Show, 4/29/10 - Greece & Goldman Sachs

Peter McClellan Show, 4/5/10 - Areas of Economic Growth

Peter McClellan Show, 3/9/10 - A Look at the Recovery

Peter McClellan Show, 2/4/10 - What is Active Management?

Peter McClellan Show, 1/29/10 - Things to Watch for in the Economy

Peter McClellan Show, 1/21/10 - Engineering Your Portfolio

Peter McClellan Show, 12/28/09 - Year in Review & a Look Ahead

Peter McClellan Show, 12/14/09 - Does Buy & Hold Investing Work?

Peter McClellan Show, 11/24/09 - Why We're Thankful

Peter McClellan Show, 11/05/09 - Is Wall Street Selling?

Peter McClellan Show, 10/27/09 - Economic Outlook

Peter McClellan Show, 9/29/09 - 3rd Qtr Review & 4th Qtr Outlook

Peter McClellan Show, 9/25/09 - Psychology of making decisions

Peter McClellan Show, 9/17/09 - The "Inflation Trade"

Peter McClellan Show, 8/31/09 - The Pending Forest Fire

Peter McClellan Show, 7/23/09 - End of the Recession, Pt 2

Peter McClellan Show, 7/22/09 - End of the Recession, Pt 1

Peter McClellan Show, 7/7/09 - How to Structure Your Portfolio

Peter McClellan Show, 6/25/09 - Active vs. Passive Management

 

 


Bad Day for the Fed Print
Written by Jeff Hybiak   
Thursday, 14 April 2011 05:39

Today is not a good day for the Fed when you take a look at this morning's headlines.

First, jobless claims jumped by 27,000 to 412,000.  Economists say that a number below 400,000 means an improving labor market, so if it is above 400,000 the labor market must not be improving.  My take is that a number around 300,000 is a healthy number, especially when you consider the number of people that are falling off the unemployment rolls.  Congress has given the Fed a dual mandate -- promote full employment and to maintain price stability.  So far the Fed's actions have done NOTHING to help the employment situation.

 

 

Second, Producer Prices were released today and we were reminded that the law of unintended consequences is in full effect.  It seems that when you print electronically create over a trillion dollars and increase the money supply by 17% in two years that prices might also go up.  Check out the one year changes in Producer Prices:

  • Finished Goods +5.8%
  • Intermediate Goods +8.9%
  • Crude Goods +16.4%

While the professors at the Fed will argue that we need to look at the overall inflation picture and ignore food and energy, the simple fact is that manufacturers are paying massively higher prices.  They have a choice -- take a hit to earnings, or pass those prices on to the consumers.  Either way, it is not good for the economy.  The focus on margins may make earnings season even more volatile.  Not all companies are like the banks and able to post fictional earnings.  If those rising producer prices begin to hurt earnings or consumers the Fed's safety net may have to be pulled away sooner than anybody would like.

The third strike against the Fed came late yesterday when the Senate Barn Door Committee Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations released a scathing report on the mortgage crisis and specifically singled out Fed darling Goldman Sachs' tactics as 'disgraceful'.  They are also urging the Justice Department to investigate Goldman's CEO's testimony before Congress.

As a reminder, the Fed was pushed by former Goldman CEO and Treasury Secretary at the time, Hank Paulson to allow Goldman Sachs to become a bank in 2008.  Despite not having any retail bank branches where we can open a checking account, this allowed Goldman to borrow from the Fed at basically zero percent interest and allowed them to receive TARP money.  The bailout of AIG also was primarily done so they could pay Goldman on the insurance they bought on the crappy mortgages they packaged and sold to investors.  

Goldman is also one of the primary beneficiaries of the Fed's Quantitative Easing operations.  It doesn't help the Fed's image that William (inflation isn't a problem because wages haven't gone up and the IPad2 costs the same as an IPad1) Dudley is a former Goldman partner.


For a lighter look at how Goldman benefits, see "What is Quantitative Easing?"

Finally, while the news is not directly related to the Fed, the problems in Europe are likely serving as a reminder to the Fed about the moral hazard of rescuing people that are not capable of every getting back to solid ground.  Greece's 10 year yield is now over 13% as people become worried that they may not be able to pay back their loans (something I wrote about last fall).  The people in Ireland are beginning to realize that the bailout forced on them is doing more harm than good, increasing the risk that they may strategically default on their debt.  Then you add in continued problems in Portugal along with the Spanish banks going to China for cash infusions and you start to see that using more debt to fix a debt and spending problem may temporarily work, but the free market eventually wins.  The lesson out of Europe -- you cannot magically make debt go away without a huge price. 

The market is still holding onto some key levels.  It looks like today it may test the 1295-1300 area that has been support many times.  One concern for the bulls in the market has got to be the fact that the market has taken hard hits whenever the government is scrutinizing the actions of Wall Street (until the Black Helicopters start flying.)


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