| Bad Day for the Fed |
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| Written by Jeff Hybiak | |||
| Thursday, 14 April 2011 05:39 | |||
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Today is not a good day for the Fed when you take a look at this morning's headlines.
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Second, Producer Prices were released today and we were reminded that the law of unintended consequences is in full effect. It seems that when you
While the professors at the Fed will argue that we need to look at the overall inflation picture and ignore food and energy, the simple fact is that manufacturers are paying massively higher prices. They have a choice -- take a hit to earnings, or pass those prices on to the consumers. Either way, it is not good for the economy. The focus on margins may make earnings season even more volatile. Not all companies are like the banks and able to post fictional earnings. If those rising producer prices begin to hurt earnings or consumers the Fed's safety net may have to be pulled away sooner than anybody would like. The third strike against the Fed came late yesterday when the Senate Goldman is also one of the primary beneficiaries of the Fed's Quantitative Easing operations. It doesn't help the Fed's image that William (inflation isn't a problem because wages haven't gone up and the IPad2 costs the same as an IPad1) Dudley is a former Goldman partner. For a lighter look at how Goldman benefits, see "What is Quantitative Easing?"Finally, while the news is not directly related to the Fed, the problems in Europe are likely serving as a reminder to the Fed about the moral hazard of rescuing people that are not capable of every getting back to solid ground. Greece's 10 year yield is now over 13% as people become worried that they may not be able to pay back their loans (something I wrote about last fall). The people in Ireland are beginning to realize that the bailout forced on them is doing more harm than good, increasing the risk that they may strategically default on their debt. Then you add in continued problems in Portugal along with the Spanish banks going to China for cash infusions and you start to see that using more debt to fix a debt and spending problem may temporarily work, but the free market eventually wins. The lesson out of Europe -- you cannot magically make debt go away without a huge price. The market is still holding onto some key levels. It looks like today it may test the 1295-1300 area that has been support many times. One concern for the bulls in the market has got to be the fact that the market has taken hard hits whenever the government is scrutinizing the actions of Wall Street (until the Black Helicopters start flying.) The comments and posts published in the SEM Trader's Blog ARE NOT investment recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk. Investing in the stock or bond markets involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before making any investment decisions you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with your investments and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. All investments involve risk including those managed by Strategic Equity Management. Opinions expressed at www.stratequity.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Strategic Equity Management or its management. Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information contained on this website, by Strategic Equity Management, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Strategic Equity Management will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Past performance is NOT indicative of future results.
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