Yesterday was already the one year anniversary of the shooting of Gabrielle Giffords.  While most of the country has already forgotten, here in Tucson the wounds still feel fresh.   Here is what I wrote a year ago, followed by some additional thoughts on this anniversary.

Originally published January 9, 2011

Saturday's shooting of Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and several innocent bystanders was shocking.  It has left me a little bit numb and searching for words to describe all the thoughts crossing through my mind.

To have something like this happen to your Congressional representative in your hometown is a little surreal.  We just had lunch on Friday with several of our business partners that were in town for a conference less than half a mile from where the shooting took place.  The bank where I used to work is on the opposite corner of the shopping center and I used to drive to that Safeway on Saturday mornings to buy a copy of Investor's Business Daily. 

While I shared our country's anger when I first heard of the shooting, sadly it was not a surprise to me that something like that would happen.  I've been studying social cycles for many years now & it is something I have touched on several times over the past few years.  Most recently I described the "social strife" we are experiencing and said we are at a point where the whole world is in a "bad mood".  It typically gets much worse before it gets better.

Last July I was on the radio discussing the Social Cycles and how they impact our country.  You can listen to the replay on  our Podcast page if you want to gain a better understanding of the cycles and what they mean for our future.

Historically our country has seen about an 80 year cycle, divided into 4ths where the various generations play an important part in the events that play out.  Typically the first and third portions of the 80 year cycle are peaceful and prosperous, although with different drivers.  The 2nd & 4th portions are marked by major social changes, political upheaval, and many violent events.  The key difference is the age of the various generations at the time.

Every 80 years there has been an "ideological" generation that is born following a major crisis in the country.  They are treasured and protected as youths as the country is fragile and recovering from a major crisis.  As they enter young adulthood, this generation begins to feel oppressed by the "sameness" that is prevalent and begins to seek changes to society.  Often times those changes are met by fierce opposition from the elders, resulting in violence.  Think back to the 60's and 70's and how violent our country became.  Civil rights leaders, Congressmen, and even the President had attempts made on their lives.

The 4th period of the cycle is also marked by violence and upheaval, but it is typically much worse than the awakening period 40 years earlier because the problems that built up over the prior portions of the cycle are coming to a head.  There is a tremendous gap between the wealthy and the middle class.  The aging ideological generation is trying to get some last minute things accomplished, which creates a large divide politically.  The generation next in line to run the country is trying to figure out how to fix the mess.  So many people are upset about the situation our country is in and the lack of progress towards fixing the problems.  The country becomes very polarized and it results in outbreaks of violence that we thought were not possible in our life times.

I always end these discussions on the social cycle with a reminder that while things may get worse from here, they will eventually get better.  I hope it is sooner rather than later, but I've already heard people (including Pima County's Sheriff - a very liberal Democrat as well as Paul Krugman of the New York Times) blame the people on the far right for inciting this violence.  Pointing the finger at the other side does not help solve the problem, it only makes it worse.  The shooter was an unstable person attacking our democracy.  No more, no less.

What has left me somewhat baffled is that Congresswoman Giffords is part of the next generation of politicians.  In the political spectrum, she is just to the left of center, a far cry from the extreme ideological positions that have been prevalent the past 10 years from the older generation of politicians.  Of the representatives I have written to she not only was the quickest at responding to the inquiry (typically in a matter of days), but she was the only one that didn't send a form letter type response.  Sadly it was her openness to communicate with her constituents that allowed this tragedy to occur.

Our prayers are with Congresswoman Giffords along with all the other victims and their families.  Hopefully this will make our country stronger and make us all realize that what makes our country great is our ability to elect our representatives and then to let them know our opinions on various subjects.  When people start using violence to voice their opinions we are no better off than a third world country. 

Unfortunately, throughout 2011 the Social Uprising became worse.  Shortly after the shooting the "Arab Spring" movement took hold.  The "unity" in Congress quickly went away and we dealt with widening polarization that was highlighted by the summer Debt Ceiling Circus.  Shortly thereafter we had the birth of the "Occupy" movement that has further divided our country.  Many historians have said that the political environment in the United States has not been this divided since the years leading up to the Civil War.  As somebody that has studied the Social Cycles, that does not surprise me as that was also a time we were entering the "Crisis" stage of the generational cycle (as was the Depression and World War 2).

I truly hope that things do not get as ugly in our country as it did during past Crises, but the developments in 2011 certainly are not helping.  I was hopeful that the 2012 election would bring to us the type of candidates that could start enacting the changes that our country needs to move through this crisis.  Unfortunately, the only "establishment changing" candidate happens to be the oldest one in the bunch (Ron Paul).

Our country MUST change.  For 30 years we used the "me first" attitude that has caused our country to amass an unprecedented amount of debt for every man, woman, and child (now approaching $50,000 each).  We've lost our 'AAA' rating and show no signs of slowing down the deficit spending because everyone is afraid of making a change.  In all honesty, do we really expect the generation that ran up this huge debt burden all while continuing to vote for policies that ensured a cushy retirement for them to actually make changes that would impact their retirement years?  The mantra for 30 years has been to avoid all short-term pain regardless of the long-term consequences.

People often ask me about the possible economic outcomes based on which party wins the election.  In all honesty, unless Ron Paul is president and Tea Party type Republicans control the Senate & House, it really doesn't matter.  We're going to continue to see the same type of leadership that got us here to begin with.  That means that our government will do everything possible not to upset the Baby Boom generation regardless of how much it costs the next two generations.  That means that we'll likely continue through this cycle where the gap between the haves and the have nots continues to widen until our country reaches the breaking point and we are FORCED to make fiscal changes that will be painful for EVERYBODY.

Don't get me wrong, Ron Paul's proposed fiscal policies (that could only be enacted if Tea Party Republicans control Congress) would be painful for EVERYBODY over the short-term.  The key difference though is that it is always better to make changes by CHOICE rather than being forced to make them because you ran out of other people's money.  The entire Global Financial System is nothing more than a Debt Ponzi Scheme.  We all know that Ponzi Schemes end badly, yet most people are unwilling to admit this.

Instead people continue to believe that with enough "time" we can work through this.  All the while the scheme continues to pilfer money away from those on the fringe -- those that are barely scraping by, but not receiving government aid and those that are not yet old enough to vote.  Meanwhile, the polarization in American continues to expand to all areas of life -- something very common during the Crisis stage of the Generational Cycle.

Yesterday's anniversary of the shootings in Tucson was a perfect example.  Having been born in Colorado and living there for 24 years, I've always been a Broncos fan, so of course we were in front of the TV yesterday watching their first playoff appearance since 2005.  Following an exciting overtime victory the local CBS station quickly switched to a special they had produced for the anniversary of the shooting.  Having watched and read enough about the shootings all weekend, I flipped over to ESPN and logged onto the internet to see what people were saying.

I'm obviously very biased.  Being a Christian and admiring Tim Tebow's career and personal life while in college, my oldest son and I (the only one in my family that has been cursed/blessed with a passion for the Broncos -- he too was born in Colorado) were ecstatic when the Broncos drafted the Florida Quarterback.  We knew that since John Elway retired the Broncos lacked leadership at the Quarterback position and Tim Tebow is a leader.  Granted, he does not have the fundamental gifts that a "normal quarterback" has, but they guy obviously knows how to win and competed in the toughest college football conference in the country, winning two national championships.

What amazes me is how polarizing this one man has become.  If you had told somebody back in October when the Broncos were 1-4 that they would not only make the playoffs, but they would beat the Pittsburgh Steelers, they would probably have called the insane asylum.  Since taking over the 1-4 team as starting Quarterback, Tim Tebow has given the Broncos a spark they have not had since the great John Elway retired.  They finally had a LEADER.

He has certainly gained a lot of fans over the past 12 games, but even after an improbable victory against one of the most successful franchises in NFL history, led by one of the most successful playoff quarterbacks in history, and against a defense that is coached by one of the best defensive coordinators in history, the voices of his detractors are just as loud.

Maybe it is because he is threatening the "status quo".  His style is certainly not textbook, but it has led to 8 victories in 12 games.  Many of his detractors certainly do not like how vocal he is about his religion and about the clean life he is living.  He is by no means perfect (nobody is), but seeing somebody that strives to live his life the "right" way even in the face of so many worldly temptations is refreshing for some, but it also can highlight our own imperfections.  How Americans have reacted is a perfect example of where we are at as a country.

Some people see the example of Tim Tebow and praise his morals while striving to be a better person.  Others instead of addressing their own flaws, attack him and hope for his failure.  When Tim Tebow losses there are no excuses.  He doesn't blame God, he blames himself.  Following a 3 game losing streak, he constantly thanked God for the OPPORTUNITY to fulfill his dream and then said "I need to start working harder," "I need to start making better plays," "I need to get better."

Our country would quickly be able to turn things around if we all had that type of attitude -- whatever situation we are in, we have a choice -- we can either make an excuse or we can thank God for the opportunities we have and then vow to do everything possible to make the best of the situation.  Attitudes like that are infectious.